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Dilewis Global Holdings
Company & Companies;  
DHC is a Florida  corp.
since 1997:   Global
Investments, Financial
Engineering  And Asset
Protection. Monaco,
London,  Panamá,
Madrid, Andorra,
Gibraltar, Bombay, Hong  
Kong,  Key Biscayne,
New York... Dr. Octavio
Dilewis, Chairman,
President & CEO;
Attorney, Financial  
Analyst. Copyright  ©   
1997-2009 Dilewis Global
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To Financial Entities:
Neither DGHC and
Companies nor its officers
or employees
recommend or endorse
the integrity, legality, skill
set or training of any
company or companies   
that you may contact.
Individuals have to be  
careful and have to act at
their own discretion. We
arrange the deal with the
client; however we
expressly disclaim all
liabilities arising out of
the transaction, all
responsibilities, and all
resulting damages
including, but not limited
to any punitive, direct or
consequential damages
that may so arise because
of the client they have
chosen or mis-chosen.
The information
contained on this web   
site and pages within is   
not intended to provide    
financial advice specific  
to the circumstances      
of any individual and  
should not be relied    
upon in that regard. Any
definitions used herein  
should not be relied upon
in making any important   
decisions. We make no  
representation or warranty
as to the validity or
accuracy of any
information contained   
in third party advertising,
or for assertions, opinions  
or omissions therein.   
Facts and information   
provided by any of the
participating financial     
institutions or clients are  
believed to be accurate  
and current when placed  
on the web site; however
we do not assume any   
responsibility for the
accuracy thereof.
Changes may be made at
any time to the  
information at this web     
site without prior notice.    
We make no warranty,      
guarantee, or promise,    
concerning the accuracy  
or timeliness of rates.  
The information that you  
provide in any form on
our web site will not be
disclosed to anyone other
than the persons
associated with this site.  
We will not under any  
circumstances distribute   
or provide your contact   
information (such as your  
name, phone numbers,     
e-mail and address), or      
basic information of any  
kind to anyone else.        
The information will be  
used only as directed by
you. No Credit Check can
or will be run by persons  
or entities and no persons
or entities will receive
your information. We
never request any    
sensitive information such
as date of birth, social       
security number or   
driver's license number.
D I L E W I S   G L O B A L    H O L D I N G S   C O M P A N Y
G l o b a l I n v e s t o r s, L L C. G l o b a l  C a p i t a l,  LLC.
Financial    Engineering    A   n   d     Diversified    Investments
Please, include section
name as a part of your
brief letter's subject.
-- Clients Relation
-- Investors Relation
-- Financial Analysis
-- Legal Issues
-- Due Diligence
-- Title Insurance
-- Risk Management
-- Financial Engineering
-- Stock Portfolios
-- Bond Portfolios
-- Business Note Portf.
-- Real Estate Note P.
-- Gold Portfolios
-- Precious Metals P.
-- Hedge Funds
Asset Management For Accredited Investors Only.   Minimum Amount Per
Account: One Million USD. Unless otherwise agreed the standard holding period is 18 months.

AlphaOdit Global Asset Management  is the only global group that charges
no management fees (usually 2 % or larger fee, based on the amount of assets under
management).

AlphaOdit Asset Management is the only global group who provide not from holding help
to Client if Client is in need of liquidity due to sudden financial problems.

AlphaOdit Asset Management is the only global group who create a Limited Liability
Company for the asset management of each Accredited Investor, as well as the only who
appoint the Accredited Investor as Supervisor for the financial operation, treasury,
investment accounts and accountability control of such Limited Liability Company.

AlphaOdit Asset Management is the only global group whose income rely solely on the
success of the Client, the Accredited Investor, regarding the investment made. AlphaOdit
considers extremely trustworthy the quality of investment decisions made by AlphaOdit's
experts, so, should AlphaOdit is not able to provide to the Accredited Investor an Annual
Return, the income (contingent fee: performance or incentive) of AlphaOdit will be ZERO.

AlphaOdit Asset Management Annual FEE will be contingent, based on the performance
of investments. The only incentive of AlphaOdit comes from the creation of wealth for the
Accredited Investor. That is to say that if there is no Annual Return, Success, Profit, to the
benefit of the Accredited Investor, there will not be any FEE paid to the order of AlphaOdit.

Contingent FEE Structure: (See Asset Management Contract)
-- Annual Profit up to 20 %   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 20% of Annual Profit
-- Annual Profit larger than 20 %  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 25 % of Annual Profit
-- Annual Profit larger than 35 %  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 30 % of Annual Profit
-- Annual Profit larger than 50 %  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 35 % of Annual Profit
-- Annual Profit larger than 65 % >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 40 % of Annual Profit
-- Annual Profit larger than 80 % >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 45 % of Annual Profit
-- Annual Profit larger than 100 % >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Contingent FEE: 50 % of Annual Profit
Note: This is neither an offer nor an advertisement. See disclaimer at left column.
Should you decide to contact us for any business opportunity   CLICK HERE
To Corporations and
Clients: Neither DGHC
and Companies nor its
officers or employees   
recommend or endorse    
the integrity, legality, skill
set or training of any       
company or companies    
that may contact you.  
Individuals have to be   
careful and have to act  
at their own discretion.  
We arrange the deal  
with the entity or
financial group; however
we expressly   disclaim
all liabilities   arising out
of the transaction, all
responsibilities, and all
resulting damages
including, but not limited
to any punitive, direct   
or consequential
damages that may so
arise because of  the  
company they have
chosen or mis-chosen.
The information
contained on this web   
site and pages within is  
not intended to provide    
financial advice specific  
to the circumstances of    
any individual and
should not be relied
upon in that regard. Any
definitions used herein  
should not be relied
upon in making any
important decisions. We
make no representation
or warranty as to the
validity or accuracy of      
any information
contained in third party
advertising, or for
assertions, opinions or
omissions therein. Facts
and information provided
by any of the
participating financial     
institutions are believed   
to be accurate and
current when placed on
the web site; however we
do not assume any
responsibility for the
accuracy thereof.
Changes may be made
at any time to the  
information at this web     
site without prior notice.   
We make no warranty,      
guarantee, or promise,    
concerning the accuracy
or timeliness of rates.
The information that you  
provide in any form on
our web site will not be
disclosed to anyone
other than the entities  
associated with this site.  
We will not under any  
circumstances distribute   
or provide your contact   
information (such as your
name, phone numbers,    
e-mail and address), or     
basic information of any  
kind to anyone else.
Such entities will use   
this information only as
directed by you. No
Credit Check can or will
be run by the lenders or
investors who receive
your information. We    
never request any     
sensitive information  
such as date of birth,        
social security number or
driver's license number.
---------------------------------------
Accredited investor:

An accredited investor is a person or
institution that the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) defines as being
qualified to invest in unregistered securities,
such as privately held corporations, private
equity investments, and hedge funds.

The qualification is based on the value of
the investor’s assets, or in the case of an
individual, annual income.

Specifically, to be an accredited investor
you must have a net worth of at least $1
million or a current annual income of at
least $200,000 with the anticipation you’ll
earn at least that much next year. If you’re
married, that amount is increased to
$300,000.

Institutions are required to have assets worth
$5 million to qualify as accredited investors.
The underlying principal is that investors
with these assets have the sophistication to
understand the risks involved in the
investment and can afford to lose the
money should the investment fail.
ADR Stock.  Foreign stock traded in the US
are known as American Depository Receipts
or ADR's. An ADR is a negotiable (traded)
share of stock of a foreign company, where
the international company has registered an
ADR to trade in the United States. Allowing
an international company to have a way for
it's stock to trade in America makes it easier
on the issuing company. Although the
American Depository Receipt must register
with the SEC, the issuing foreign company
does not. These can trade OTC or on an
exchange. This can give a sense of stability
to the stockholder. Although, as with any
stock - the risk still lies with the performance
of the stock and the financial well being of
the company overseas.

ADR Dividend Declaration and Payout

The securities of the foreign company are
deposited in a foreign branch of a US Bank.
ADR holders will receive dividends in
American dollars based on this banking and
conversion arrangement.

Since this is still considered shares of stock
in a company, the corporation will declare
and pay it's cash dividend in it's natural
currency, whether it is in Yen, Euro or
whatever currency they use. The dividend
of the ADR is then converted into American
dollars and paid out to the American
shareholders.

Many securities investors own American
Depository Receipt shares. It can offer you
the chance to own stock in an international
company, while getting the comfort of the
investment being safe-kept in the US and
traded on US stock exchanges.
Money Market For Cash.
Cash available is
invested in a fund that is
comprised of short term
debt securities, known as
money market fund.
Investor account will
have money in this type
of fund with the
brokerage firm. Money
market yields will vary
based on the
performance of
securities in such fund.

Securities in the
Account. The Money
Market fund will be
comprised of short term
notes and other early
maturing debt. These
would include:
Treasury Bills
Municipal Notes
Commercial Paper
Banker's Acceptances
(BA's),
Fed Funds,
Negotiable CD's
Asset Management Prospectus. A
prospectus is a document that describes the
investment being involved. In the case of
hedge funds, a prospectus would be
distributed to potential investors informing
them about the fund objectives, investment
philosophy and risk tolerance as well as fee
structure, reinvestment and divestment. For
instance, a hedge fund prospectus may
disclose that the fund charges 20-50% of
profits (when there are not charges or fees
based on the total assets under
management, disregarding the investment
performance) as a management fee and
only allows capital withdrawals once a year
at a set time. These items are only the most
basic, though often most scrutinized,
elements of a hedge fund prospectus.
Investors must have the choice to discuss
the Prospectus at any time.
Asset Mix
Asset mix is the allocation of a portfolio
between asset classes, it balances return
and risk. Returns are a combination of the
income from an investment and the price
appreciation over the period. Risk is usually
proxied by the "standard deviation" of
returns, how much the return changes about
the long-term average.

Returns are calculated on a nominal
(dollar) basis or as "real" returns, the
nominal return less inflation. Inflation is
usually taken as the change in the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the
observation period. Long-term studies have
demonstrated that equities have the highest
overall returns over longer periods of time,
but they also have the highest volatility.
Bonds have lower returns, but greater
stability. Cash and short-term securities have
very certain returns, but very smaller
long-term returns. Other asset classes such
as real estate, mortgages and
inflation-linked bonds have different risk and
return patterns. To the extent that asset
class returns tend to move together, they are
said to be "correlated". The overall risk of
the portfolio can be reduced by combining
asset classes with differing return patterns.

Establishing an Investment Policy
A long-term "investment policy" is usually
established based on the investor's
long-term objectives and constraints of the
investor. The return objective is the key
variable. A high return objective can only
be obtained by investing in asset classes
with a higher return. Based on historical
experience, without constraints equities
have by far the highest return. An asset
planning study which sought to obtain the
highest overall return would recommend an
investor's entire portfolio be invested in
equities.

Investor Constraints
Constraints state the risk preferences of the
investor. The time horizon of the investor
dictates the time frame for the investor's
portfolio. For example, since equities have
a high long-term return but higher volatility
in the short term, the return from equities
very uncertain over shorter time periods.
Risk averse investors (those without the
capability of absorbing capital losses) would
have a higher cash and short-term
component. Investors with a higher
tolerance for capital risk should favour
equities. Investors with a high income
requirement would tend to favour a higher
fixed income weighting.
Asset Management: Investment Strategy for Asset Enhancement.

1- AlphaOdit uses Arbitrage, simultaneous buying and selling of securities in different
markets with the purpose of profiting from the price difference in the markets, under
absolutely controlled circumstances only.

2- AlphaOdit strongly avoids Derivatives, a volatile financial instrument whose value
depends on or is derived from the performance of a secondary source such as an
underlying bond or currency.

3- AlphaOdit hedges, making arrangements to safeguard against loss on an investment,
by the use of various techniques: avoiding overvalued securities and potential bubble
bursts, having in mind the intrinsic value of securities, watching historical lows of strong
fundamentals securities, etc.

4- AlphaOdit strongly avoids Leverage, the use of credit (such as margin) to improve one’
s speculative ability. AlphaOdit prefers to increase the rate of return on an investment, by
the use of less risky methods.

5- AlphaOdit strongly avoids Short Sale, a sale of a security that the seller does n’t own
(if the seller does own the security it is said to be in a “long position”), and that the seller
must borrow. The only exception is when a security is very obviously near of a bubble
burst situation. Usually, the technique is employed when prices are likely to drop. If the
price of the security does drop, the seller can make a profit on the price of the shares sold
versus the price of the shares bought to pay back the borrowed shares.

6- AlphaOdit can invest up to 3/10 of the assets in Aggressive Growth concerning
exclusively undervalued securities. AlphaOdit Invests in equities expected to experience
acceleration in growth of earnings per share. AlphaOdit hedges watching the best
opportunity on undervalued securities. However AlphaOdit avoids shorting of equities
unless there are obvious and strong expectation of earnings disappointment.

7- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Distressed Securities,
buying equity, debt, or trade claims at deep discounts of companies in or facing
bankruptcy or reorganization, when there is strong indications that AlphaOdit can profit
from the market’s lack of understanding of the true value of the deeply discounted
securities and because the majority of institutional investors cannot own below
investment grade securities.

8- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Emerging Markets,
investing in equity or debt of emerging (less mature) markets which tend to have higher
inflation and volatile growth. Short selling is not permitted in many emerging markets,
and, therefore, such type of hedging is often not available.

9- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Fund of Funds which
could be mixes and matches hedge funds and other pooled investment vehicles. This
blending of different strategies and asset classes aims to provide a more stable long-
term investment return than any of the individual funds. Volatility depends on the mix and
ratio of strategies employed.

10- AlphaOdit can invest up to 3/10 of the assets in Income. Investing with primary focus
on yield or current income rather than solely on capital gains. May utilize leverage to buy
bonds and sometimes fixed income like RE Notes in order to profit from discounted
purchase, principal appreciation and interest income under absolutely controlled
circumstances only.  

11- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Macro. Aims to profit
from changes in global economies, typically brought about by shifts in government policy
which impact interest rates, in turn affecting currency, stock, and bond markets.
Participates in all major markets -- equities, bonds, currencies and commodities --
though not always at the same time. Uses leverage and derivatives to accentuate the
impact of market moves, under absolutely controlled circumstances only.

12- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Market Neutral -
Arbitrage. Attempts to hedge out most market risk by taking offsetting positions, often in
different securities of the same issuer.

13- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Market Neutral -
Securities Hedging. Invests equally in long and short equity portfolios generally in the
same sectors of the market. Market risk is greatly reduced, but effective stock analysis
and stock picking is essential to obtaining meaningful results. Leverage may be used to
enhance returns, under absolutely controlled circumstances only.

14- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Market Timing, allocating
assets among different asset classes depending on the manager’s view of the economic
or market outlook.

15- AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in Opportunistic.
Investment theme changes from strategy to strategy as opportunities arise to profit from
events such as IPOs, sudden price changes often caused by an interim earnings
disappointment, hostile bids, and other event-driven opportunities. May utilize several of
these investing styles at a given time and is not restricted to any particular investment
approach or asset class.  

16- AlphaOdit strongly avoids Short Selling: Sells securities short in anticipation of being
able to re-buy them at a future date at a lower price due to the manager’s assessment  
that the securities are overvalued, or the market, or in anticipation of earnings
disappointments often due to accounting irregularities, new competition, change of
management, etc. However, AlphaOdit can invest, alternatively, up to 1/10 of the assets in
some opportunities, under absolutely controlled circumstances.

17- AlphaOdit can invest up to 3/10 of the assets in Value, under certain circumstances.
Usually AlphaOdit Invests in securities perceived to be selling at deep discounts to their
intrinsic value or their potential worth. Such securities may be out of favor with analysts.
Long-term holding, patience, and strong discipline are often required until the ultimate
value is recognized by the market.

Should you decide to contact us for any business opportunity  CLICK HERE
AlphaOdit SP5H Equity Holding (As Of January First, 2009).
Profitable equity holding, solid out-performers, stronger, wider balanced. Not leverage,
50 % less  risky. Up To Two Billion USD or larger investment. Monthly operation
expenses: 0.25 % (not from holding, free). Operation expenses & brokerage expenses
do not affect the integrity of the holding, due to the only use of margin to such effect.


Equity                           Current Price                One Year Target Price            Annual Profit
Number                         (Per Share)                (Experts' s Mean Target)                        (%)

Equity 1                                1.71                                          3.74                                           218
Equity 2                                1.80                                          3.49                                           194
Equity 3                                3.32                                          5.85                                           176
Equity 4                                3.77                                        10.38                                           275
Equity 5                                3.78                                          8.36                                           221
Equity 6                                4.69                                          7.34                                           156
Equity 7                                5.24                                          8.25                                           157
Equity 8                                5.79                                        10.64                                           184
Equity 9                                6.07                                        13.22                                           217
Equity 10                              6.25                                        12.81                                          205
Equity 11                              6.44                                        10.00                                          155
Equity 12                              6.65                                        10.17                                          153
Equity 13                              7.90                                        14.40                                          182
Equity 14                              8.83                                        13.94                                          158
Equity 15                              9.28                                        23.00                                          248
Equity 16                           10.04                                        17.43                                          173
Equity 17                           10.08                                        19.63                                          194
Equity 18                           10.83                                        19.68                                          182
Equity 19                           11.93                                        18.00                                          152
Equity 20                           12.68                                        22.65                                          178
Equity 21                           12.85                                        21.38                                          166
Equity 22                           12.98                                        20.67                                          159
Equity 23                           13.18                                        21.72                                          164
Equity 24                           14.19                                        24.17                                          170
Equity 25                           14.48                                        23.44                                          162
Equity 26                           15.60                                        34.36                                          220
Equity 27                           17.15                                        26.89                                          157
Equity 28                           17.34                                        30.28                                          175
Equity 29                           21.05                                        45.07                                          214
Equity 30                           22.20                                        39.63                                          178
Equity 31                           24.29                                        46.13                                          190
Equity 32                           25.17                                        43.46                                          173
Equity 33                           25.29                                        41.12                                          163
Equity 34                           25.56                                        51.61                                          202
Equity 35                           26.36                                        41.20                                          156
Equity 36                           26.82                                        46.17                                          172
Equity 37                           27.86                                        42.50                                          153
Equity 38                           27.39                                        42.35                                          155
Equity 39                           27.59                                        52.67                                          190
Equity 40                           28.00                                        42.38                                          151
Equity 41                           28.10                                        42.90                                          153
Equity 42                           29.05                                        58.09                                          200
Equity 43                           30.25                                        45.80                                          151
Equity 44                           30.75                                        58.09                                          189
Equity 45                           32.07                                        48.75                                          152
Equity 46                           32.55                                        49.21                                          151
Equity 47                           35.36                                        56.54                                          160
Equity 48                           36.00                                        54.48                                          151
Equity 49                           43.00                                        65.70                                          153
Equity 50                           50.00                                        76.42                                          153


The Most Conservative (just capital gains, dividends not included)
Potential Gross Profit At January First, 2010 (%) ----------------------------------------  175.00
January First, 2009: $2,000,000,000.00 >>>>> January First, 2010: $3,500,000,000.00
>>>>>>>Potential Gross Profit One Year Later >>>>>>>> $1,500,000,000.00 <<<<<<<
Investment Money Management

With the amount of full service assets
management firms available, many
investors are using advisory firms for
full money or assets management on
their investments. A money manager
can handle all of investor's financial
investments under one umbrella
account. A good financial advisor will
spread investor assets over a
diversified field of investment choices
to create a well diversified portfolio.

Asset Management . Securities and
Investment. Trust account set up.
Contracts and Fees .

Asset Management can vary with
each advisor or money manager.
Usually, a full service asset
management program is a for fee
management based on the total
assets the firm is advising for
investor. Many large Asset Managers
provide to investors Asset
Management based on paying per
transaction (commission).

Should a Money Manager is paid on a
percentage of assets under
management usually there is no
monetary incentive for the advisor to
do any trading. Should such Money
Manager is paid on a percentage of
the profit there is a monetary incentive
for the advisor  to do any trading
which makes sense. There is also a
comfort level should all of investor's
assets are managed in one place by
a trustworthy Money Manager whose
profit rely on investor's profit.

When a financial advisor manages
assets for investor, investment in
each field can be made with the other
investment fields in mind. Should the
Asset Manager is in touch with
investor's entire financial situation
Asset Manager is able to know how
each investment decision affects
investor' s entire investments.

Choosing a Money Manager.  When
choosing a money manager investor
must find such that is willing to do a
free review of investor's current
assets and/or investments.  This will
allow investor to see how deep the
money manager do his work and the
advice he is giving. It can be very
educational, investor is under no
obligation and investor may decide to
go with that particular money
management firm.
Investment Portfolio Management.
Most full service asset management
firms offer full or active portfolio
management for their investors.

The investment management could
include, stocks, bonds, funds, etc. A
firm who provide asset management
for investor gives such investor a full
line of products and allows the
investor to have his entire portfolio
managed and kept by such firm.

Active. When an assets manager  or
advisor is involved in active
management, this normally means
the investor is frequently investing or
changing assets. It also could mean
the firm is involved in every financial
assets the client has.

Bonds and Fixed Income Portfolio.
Many large investors or institutional
clients like Banks and insurance
companies have large holdings of
bonds and other fixed income product.

The active management of these
portfolios include seeing the
maturities of these investments, and
managing interest rate risk. A good
bond money manager will work to
make sure there is limited interest
rate exposure and will offer
management of the cash flow from
these bonds.

A fixed income portfolio specialist will
also survey the entire market for the
best product available through many
broker dealers. This is especially
important when dealing with
municipal bonds - since most of
those are held by firms in each state.
New issues of mortgage backed
securities and corporate issues
should also be part of most large
bond product holdings.

Proper asset management should be
a successful arrangement for the
investor and the portfolio manager.
Market Timing Strategies. Market timing sounds easy. These strategies involve moving between risky
assets, such as stocks or bonds, and less risky short term securities like Treasury Bills based on
"technical", "fundamental" or "quantitative" analyses. Reduced to its core proposition, market timing
means "buying low and selling high." Identifying high or "overvalued" versus low or "undervalued" is the
complicated thing. Since riskier assets usually have higher returns over longer periods, staying "out of
the market" or invested in less-risky short term securities can mean a considerable sacrifice of overall
return.

It was Issac Newton who in 1768, after being wiped out in one of the many stock market crashes of his
era, said:
Private Placement Investments. Stock offerings offered only to wealthy or seasoned investors are private
placements. Under Regulation D of the SEC, these investment offerings can be sold to no more than 35
non accredited investors. These normally carry a stock holding period requirement. Brokerage firms that
handle wealthy clients that are looking for investment opportunities may offer private placements. The
investors would be made aware of the risks regarding the holding period, after market potential and other
risks. There are many private placement offerings covering a broad spectrum of the investment market.
management. The cash flows can be identified and assessed. Even so, where we can value this company, its stock might not be appropriately valued for years and its
future prospects depend on the economy in general. What about the market overall? Who is the management? What matters most, monetary policy or fiscal policy?
What are demographics doing to demand? What about international considerations?

That is why most market mavens have one or two great predictions before they are hopelessly out to lunch in the forecasting wilderness. While it is possible to tie it all
together a few times, it is virtually impossible to do it consistently.

Most good market strategists only try to identify "extremes" when things are very overvalued. They stay invested until these periods, knowing the smaller swings are
"noise" that usually work themselves out. Even so, staying in cash until the eventual crash comes gets harder and harder as the markets run ahead. Usually the final
charge of the bull market results in public "bears" being hopelessly discredited and throwing in the towel at exactly the wrong moment.

Should you time the markets? Only if you have the necessary insight and discipline to know when to "hold" and when to "fold" as the song says. Both of these are very
Quantitative Measures
Quantitative techniques involve associating different market measures or "variables" in quantitative equations or "models". For example, an analyst might "build a
model" that related the movements in stock prices to money supply, dividend yields and economic activity. From this, he would attempt to identify the periods when
the market had setbacks. The analyst would then develop some "decision rules" or guidelines to dictate his trading positions that would be programmed into his
model. This type of investing is formally called "Tactical Asset Allocation" (TAA). It has become very popular and results in large flows in modern financial markets.

Does Market Timing Work?
It has become accepted wisdom in financial circles that it is impossible to consistently "time the markets". This has resulted partly from the theoretical academic
arguments that no one can have such an advantage (legally!) in their "efficient markets". In practice, the complexity of modern financial markets means that it is very,
very difficult to predict the vast number of variables that can affect the markets. Who knew that Saddam Hussein planned to invade Kuwait in 1990 and the price of oil
would soar? An investor predicting the unification of Germany and its resultant affect on the capital markets would have been shipped to the funny farms only a
couple of years before it happened.

It is possible to establish a valuation level for the markets, like a stock. Compare these tasks. A small company might have a few competitors, a known product line and
A market timing strategy is conceptually easy to understand. Stay invested when the market is up or flat.
Avoid the downturns. The market timer develops signals to identify what condition a market is in. An
overvalued market is called "expensive", "overbought" or "overextended". A normal market is "fairly
valued". An undervalued market is "cheap". The market timer can use a variety of measures to judge
the status of the market. These techniques are a combination of technical, fundamental and
quantitative indicators and measures.

Technical Indicators
The technical indicators are based on "price" and "volume" movements and patterns. The technical
analyst looks at the patterns and movements independently of their causes. It is patterns alone that tells
the state of the market. For example, the analyst might see a "topping" pattern developing in the overall
market or one of the important sectors from his charts. A "head and shoulders" formation would see the
market index rise steeply, fall and then rise again. This would be a very "bearish" or negative signal
pointing to a large and sudden drop in the market. The analyst might discern the depth of the fall from
the length of the neck or relative height of the shoulders. Other technical indicators involve the
"volume" statistics or trading activities of investors. A sudden drop in trading activity or a large
differential between smaller and larger stocks would be an indication of a potentially large move, with
the direction dependent on what "expert" investors are doing compared to individuals.
Vain attempts to divine the direction and outcomes of "the market" have involved astrology, superstition
and the supernatural. Academics have surrendered unconditionally. After quantitative techniques and
supercomputers proved duds in predicting the financial future, the most highly educated and qualified
financial researchers ran up the white flag of the "efficient market".

In their rational world, everyone knows everything and it is only random chance that moves markets in a
dice-throwing "stochastic process". Basically, they reasoned, no one could predict the market since
there were so many smart people trying to do it. They then set about proving this, hopefully making their
insulated lives easier since they would never have to stick their necks out with market predictions.

For most investors however, market timing is too attractive to let pass by. If one could participate in all
the 25% up years in the stock market and pass by the -25% years in TBills with a modest 5% return, the
rewards would be huge. Even capturing a little of this outperformance would lead to a superb
performance compared to a "passive" or fully invested strategy.
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies but not the movements of the stock market".
His lesson has been learned by most active investors since then. The pricing of long term financial
assets like stocks or bonds involves all components of the human condition; fear, greed, optimism,
pessimism, crowd psychology. Politics, economics, revolution, natural disaster, technology also have
impact.
Fundamental Indicators
Fundamental indicators are financial and economic measures that affect the overall valuation of the
market. A good example of this would be money supply. Generally, a loose monetary policy and
expanding money supply indicate healthy financial markets. When monetary policy is tightened, as in
1994, the price of longer term assets like stocks and bonds fall as money and credit become scarcer.
Another fundamental measure would be the dividend yield on stocks, the dividend divided by the stock
price, both the absolute level and the relative level compared to bonds. From a historical standpoint,
when the overall dividend yield on the stock market is below 2%, independent of other factors, this
means that the stock market is expensive. When the dividend yield on stocks is low relative to bond
yields, this means investors are willing to pay more for stocks relative to bonds than has generally been
the case historically.
Stock, Stock Market and Trading
Market Overview            Market Summary                      ValuePro Valuation                         Return & Intrinsic Value                            Stock Selector Valuation    
IV = ([8.5] + [2(10yrAAGrowthRate)]) (L12ME.) (4.40/AAACBY),                                               Price Target = (P/E Curr.) (E. Estimate) ([Ind. P/E]/[Stock P/E]),
Buffett's Value Approach (10 After5Yr) (D12)      Price Target = ([SS Average] + [SS Valuation]) / (2)         P/E Price Target                 One Year Target Estimate       
Key Statistics               BigChart                  Deluxe Screener
hard to come by. For most of us risk is having your money available when you need it. If you can't afford a 30% drop in value, you shouldn't be in longer term assets in
the first place. If you decide to time the markets, remember one thing. Those who are really good at market timing aren't going to do television and newspaper
interviews just before the crash. You'll only know what they did a few months after the fact. If you can't do it yourself, you probably shouldn't try.

If you only invest in stocks when the guys at work have made lots of money or your GICs aren't paying anything, you probably are doing exactly the wrong thing.
Investing when newspaper headlines are doom and gloom and the boys have been blown away would be a better timing strategy. At the peak, it's impossible to find a
bearish forecast. At the bottom its impossible to see the upside. S: Financial Pipeline